Putin’s war in Ukraine may well be part of a bigger plan. Since the name of the plan if it exists is secret, the plan could be called “Operation Gut Strike”. This would be an apt title since the intention is to strike the US-led “international community” from the inside out. For more on the background, see my history of the US-led “international community” and how its opponents could see vulnerabilities, here.
Stage One: Operation Three Russias Union State—the invasion of Ukraine.
The operational name of Putin’s war in Ukraine is unknown. Yet it may well be called “Operation Three Russias Union State”. If Putin can encircle the Ukrainian government to force it to be a puppet state or alternately if the Ukrainian Government flees Kyiv before encirclement and is replaced by an alternate government of Putin’s own creation, then the Republic of Ukraine, as guided by that puppet government could join the Union State of Russia and Belarus. At that point in time, if and when it happens, the Union State of Russia and Belarus shall become the Three Russias Union State since Belarus is White Russia while a puppet Ukraine would join “on behalf of Little Russia”.
The war would not be over. With or without a Zelensky Presidency to govern from exile, the millions of Ukrainian refugees would be assembled into a system of refugee camps that would form the basis of an exile army, as has happened already everywhere from the Palestinian Diaspora to the Cambodian Diaspora to the Rwandan Hutu Diaspora, etc., etc.
Whether or not, the Putin Presidency will be the final victor of Operation Three Russias Union State would depend on whether the Western sanctuary for Ukrainian insurgency collapses the Russian occupation or instead Putin’s influence elsewhere leads to the collapse of the insurgent sanctuary first.
Stage Two: The Second Iran-US Nuclear Deal—a prelude to American withdrawal from the Mideast to Eastern Europe
Meanwhile, the second Iran-US Nuclear Deal is close at hand. It will be generous to Iran. Iran will use trade and released funds to finance weapons deliveries from Russia. Its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will intensify the insurgencies fighting the United States Armed Forces across the Mideast. This will make Iran in particular and the Mideast in general a much greater headache for the Biden Administration. At the same time, the confrontation at the NATO-Ukraine border will intensify. Why not move military personnel out of the Mideast entirely and place them in Eastern Europe? There would be problems leaving oil deposits in the Mideast open to attack but the thing an observer should understand about such a scenario is that the Americans are a passionate but not a serious people.
An Important Sidenote: The Americans are Passionate, Not Serious, People
Biden says “Buy American”. Before him, Trump was damned as a bigot for promoting such protectionism.
When people suggest imposing a No-Fly Zone over Ukraine, there are many who say World War 3 must be avoided. These are often the same sort of people who damn Trump as a Russian agent and have been doing so ever since he suggested that peace with Russia “might be nice”.
Neocons often stampede Americans into wars by suggesting that diplomatic concessions are equivalent to appeasing Hitler. When such sentiments lead to wars in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq that are then lost, the use of “Chamberlain” and “Munich” as clichés are not then subjected to a much more thorough analysis.
All this and more betray Americans of the mainstream consensus as a people who are very passionate but not at all serious. To be emotional but not rational, suggested psychological vulnerability. And the Putins of the world seek to exploit the vulnerabilities. With the NATO-Ukraine border hardened and the US leaving the Mideast, the next step would be dependent on China.
Stage Three: China—the Banker, the Stock Exchange, the Tech Power and Naval State
The media says that China is threatening Taiwan. The media says that China is building a navy to seize Taiwan. What if all that is just a diversion? What if China’s first adventure as a Naval State is destined to be…elsewhere? Consider that if the US Armed Forces move all personnel in the Mideast out to go to Eastern Europe, it would be in the interests of neither China, nor Iran, nor Russia for them to change their mind. What if China moved a naval fleet into the Persian Gulf? The oil deposits would be secured for a China/Iran/Russia alliance.
The Western Powers boast of breaking Russia by cutting it out of SWIFT, the system for banks trading funds across countries. China and Russia have developed an alternative, CIPS. The stock exchange on CIPS is up, as the businesses therein have a market to themselves. Trade Russian oil, trade Mideastern oil, all on CIPS, all goods being convertible to a payment in the yuan, Chinese currency backed by the power of Chinese manufacturing, an industrial power retooled from servicing the Western market to servicing a more Eurasian market and then, change happens.
Change happens because in the current order, the US Navy secures the sealanes so that nations invest in the US dollar and nations open their markets to the dollar so that oil transported on these sealanes remained accessible to their people. And yet with the above situation, Russian and Mideastern oil, a major percentage of total world oil, is no longer accessible to the US dollar market. Instead it’s on a separate market servicing a separate Eurasian system uniting oil exporters and Chinese manufacturing.
At the same time, the Internet as a force multiplier of the world economy is partitioned. There emerges two Internets—thus US online media become inaccessible from within this Eurasian system even with a VPN!
The time then comes for the final stage of Operation Gut Strike!
Stage Four: BRICS Banks—Invest in China to get the Yuan to Buy Russian Oil à “The Counter-Hegemony Poles”—“Latin America CHP”, “Africa CHP”, “Mideast CHP”, “Eurasia (Caucasus to Pyongyang) CHP”.
The acronym BRICS stands for “Brazil, Russia, Iran, China, South Africa”. Coordination between these nations is a tool that Putin and Xi could use to expand their revolution against US leadership of the international community beyond its initial Eurasian base, established as explained previously. Even if, say, Brazil won’t play ball, it could be substituted by Venezuela or Indonesia or others. As the new Petroyuan Order launches its economic revolution against the US Dollar Order, the economic revolution becomes a military revolution as nations locked out of the markets of the US Dollar Order form local blocs to defend themselves based on common membership in the Petroyuan Order. These local military blocs are called “Counter-Hegemony Poles”, the basis of “a multipolar international order”. There emerges a “Latin America CHP”, “Africa CHP”, “Mideast CHP” and an “Eurasia (Caucasus to Pyongyang) CHP”.
Back on the Home Front of the US-Led Hegemony
The home front of the US-led international community, or “hegemony” if one prefers such terminology, is the US primarily and the EU (and similar nations) secondarily. The COVID-19 crisis has created a Great Depression on this homefront. Inflation is already at a decades-long high. The home front is also largely deindustrialized due to outsourcing. Whereas the Ukrainian insurgency over the course of Operation Gut Strike saps Russian strength, the diversion of oil, other raw materials and currency of the Third World away from the US-EU home front into China, Russia and Iran accelerates inflation from its height as of March 2022 of 7.5% yearly to 50% yearly. The threshold of hyperinflation. As money becomes worthless, the people demand the government do something, the government tightens its grip and hyperinflation then accelerates faster at a faster pace. A wheelbarrow of dollars may become necessary for a bag of groceries. The US will have to bring its security forces home to keep the peace; the EU will sue for peace, turning off a previously vigorous Ukrainian insurgency like a light switch since its system of refugee camps give the insurgency the sanctuary that is its necessary precondition.
Final Remark
I frame Operation Gut Strike as a plan for Russian victory but whether or not it would put Russia ahead depends on who can endure hardship versus who would break down due to trauma first. Who would break down first—Russia or the EU and US, if Putin’s plan is really something along the lines of Operation Gut Strike? I invite my reader’s thoughts!